Japanese stock market has wind at its back

The rally in Japanese stocks in recent months is likely to continue, supported by an encouraging earnings outlook, low valuations and the ongoing ultra-easy monetary policy, we believe. We looked at how Japanese equity performance and valuation have trended since 1990. Japanese equities are approaching peaks they have struggled to climb over in past decades,…

via Japanese stock market has wind at its back — BlackRock Blog

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Why isn’t Thailand’s middle class fond of democracy? — East Asia Forum

Author: Pavin Chachavalpongpun, Kyoto University The growth of the middle class and civil society plays a pivotal role in the promotion of democracy. They closely monitor a government’s performance and its commitment to good governance. The middle class also demands access to political resources, while underscoring the importance of participatory democracy. But in Thailand the…

via Why isn’t Thailand’s middle class fond of democracy? — East Asia Forum

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Châu Âu – mối nguy hiểm ngay từ trung tâm

25 Tháng 7 2017 09:28

Châu Âu đang vướng vào một cuộc khủng hoảng kinh tế, một mặt do cấu trúc của Liên minh châu Âu (EU), mặt khác do bản chất của chủ nghĩa tư bản gây ra.

Tin tốt từ châu Âu là đảng Mặt trận Quốc gia theo chủ nghĩa Quốc xã mới của Marine Le Pen đã thất bại trong cuộc bầu cử tổng thống Pháp ngày 7/5. Tin xấu là chương trình của người giành chiến thắng, Emmanuel Macron, có thể đưa Le Pen trở lại cuộc đua trong 6 năm nữa kể từ bây giờ.Macron cam kết cắt giảm 120.000 công ăn việc làm trong lĩnh vực công, giảm chi tiêu 60 tỷ euro, bãi bỏ tuần làm việc 35 giờ, tăng độ tuổi nghỉ hưu, làm suy yếu sức mạnh đàm phán và cắt giảm thuế doanh nghiệp. Đây là một chương trình không có khả năng hồi phục nền kinh tế ốm yếu của Pháp, nhưng chắc chắn sẽ làm trầm trọng thêm tình cảnh khó khăn của thanh niên thất nghiệp và người lớn tuổi và trao cho đảng Mặt trận Quốc gia đạn dược cho cuộc bầu cử năm 2022. Continue reading

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EU–China relations in the Trump era

22 July 2017
Author: Silvia Menegazzi, LUISS Guido Carli University

In a period in which multilateralism seems under threat, EU–China relations have never appeared as highly strategic as they are today. To some extent, the EU–China partnership might have the potential to keep the international multilateral system afloat.

The EU and China are two of the three largest economies in the world. As the United States’ global leadership continues to be pushed aside by Trump’s declarations to boycott multilateral cooperation, the potential of the EU–China partnership to counterbalance the United States within multilateral organisations and regimes cannot be underestimated.

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The China factor in global governance

17 July 2017

Author: Katherine Morton, University of Sheffield

The transition towards a more pluralistic form of global governance that is inclusive of emerging powers remains fraught with tensions. Whether the existing global framework of rules and institutions can adapt to this new paradigm will depend upon whether liberal states can work in tandem with China in tackling the core challenges facing global governance.

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Old alignments based upon geopolitical divisions do not sufficiently address transnational threats affecting societies across the globe, such as irregular migration, terrorism and violent extremism, illicit trade and environmental disasters precipitated by climate change. Continue reading

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The start of the end of ultra-easy monetary policy | BlackRock Blog

Central banks are increasingly moving away from super accommodative monetary policy, and Richard explains what this means for investors.

Central banks increasingly are moving away from excessively easy monetary policy. Yields paused after recent gains last week, partly on soft inflation data. Yet we see them rising gradually, reinforcing the case for stocks over bonds.

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Strategic diplomacy in Asia

Evelyn Goh and Jochen Prantl Why strategic diplomacy matters
Amitav Acharya Coping with the changing world order
Kishore Mahbubani ASEAN at 50 … and more
ASIAN REVIEW — James Curran: The choice between sentiment and reality
Aileen S P Baviera: Duterte’s China policy shift, strategy or serendipity?
Katherine Morton: The China factor in global governance

From the editors’ desk

Strategy involves connecting ways and means to specific goals,
while diplomacy is one of the key means by which states navigate
the chosen paths to their desired policy ends. Yet, the business of
national strategy-making is increasingly fraught as many states
today lack compelling national narratives such as empire, religion,
independence, or the Cold War whereby to order strategic purpose.
Thus, strategies themselves have become the object of national and
international contest.
At the same time, states are faced with a wide range of
interconnected risks and threats, making the strategic underpinning
of diplomatic practice even more crucial than before, especially
because the common reaction to complexity and uncertainty is to
seek refuge in tactics. This challenge is especially acute in strategically
dynamic regions like East Asia.
Hence ‘strategic diplomacy’—diplomacy undertaken with
purposeful strategic rationale, with a long-term focus on shaping
the complex international system that nation-states must operate
in—is a policy tool that needs development and sharpening. The
collection of essays in this issue is drawn from our new multi-regional
research program on strategic diplomacy. They present brief studies
from Southeast Asia, a region evincing significant diplomacy with
pronounced strategic motivations.
Leading regional scholars and practitioners from a range of
disciplines examine the challenges of strategic diplomacy in
regionalism, economics, law and security. These eight essays derive
from a selection of papers presented at a workshop jointly organised
by the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre and the Asia-Pacific
College of Diplomacy at ANU, and the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public
Policy at the National University of Singapore in February 2017.
The Asian Review section features essays on the pressures facing
the Australia–US alliance, Philippine President Duterte’s tilt to China,
China’s changing role in global governance, US–China relations under
Trump and their implications for Southeast Asia, as well as the future
of the China–Japan relationship.

Evelyn Goh and Jochen Prantl

Amitav Acharya
A PRIMARY task of strategic diplomacy is to adapt to the changing contours of the world order. The contemporary order, in place since the end of World War II and often called the US-dominated liberal hegemony, is changing. But it is not simply returning to the multipolar geopolitics of the prewar era, as many pundits and policymakers would claim. In the context of Asia, we often hear that ‘Europe’s past could become Asia’s future’, as political scientist Aaron Friedberg has written and others have echoed. This view is misleading. The prewar multipolar world was largely one of states,
empires and colonies. Today, the main actors are not only great powers, or even just states. They are also international and regional institutions, corporations, transnational nongovernmental organisations and social movements, transnational criminal
and terrorist groups, and so on.
Economic interdependence today has become much more extensive
and multidimensional, consisting of trade, finance, and global production
networks and supply chains. Prewar multipolarity, on the other hand,
was mainly trade-based. What’s more, there is a far greater density
of relatively durable international and regional institutions today. PreWorld
War I Europe had only one: the European Concert of Powers; the
interwar period only had the shortlived League of Nations.
This emerging world order can be better understood as a ‘multiplex
world’.

The multiplex world is characterised …

http://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/n2562/pdf/book.pdf?referer=2562

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